Quando o Titanic se afundou, por incúria e soberba do comandante, a orquestra continuou a tocar*

Ontem, o Governo anunciou que “A Auto-estrada do Centro é o único projecto que vai ser reavaliado pelo Executivo” e que “vai manter as grandes obras públicas como o TGV, o novo aeroporto de Lisboa e a terceira travessia sobre o Tejo”… começa a ser difícil encontrar as palavras certas para descrever isto!

Infelizmente, vale a pena ler, no "Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research - European Weekly Analyst, April 29, 2010":

“€150 bn IMF & Eurozone program for Greece likely to be announced this weekend ...Today's papers report that IMF chief Strauss-Kahn indeed told German policymakers that they might need EUR120-130bn over three years. … So here is what I think they'll say this weekend: 1 - They'll announce that the IMF staff has reached agreement with the Greek authorities on a 3-year program that will include draconian fiscal cuts (on the order of 10pc of GDP) and a series of structural measures aimed at driving nominal wages lower, fix the pension system and building better institutions. 2 - Wrt the number, they'll impress us with something like EUR150bn over the next three years (truly a number that blows away any previous record rescue as a share of quota) with about EUR50bn for the first year. However, the full EUR150bn can only be indicative because some EUR90-100bn will have to come from the Europeans, and they are in the process of approving "only" EUR30bn. The political and legislative battles in Europe seem destined to continue for months. 3 - In other words, something like EUR30bn (which will cover the rest of this year) will be pretty firmly committed, although subject to quarterly performance criteria; ie legislative progress by the Greek authorities to fulfil those conditions. The rest will be more like a political pledge that if Greece continues to follow through on the reform program agreed with the IMF then another EUR100-120bn can be made available during the remainder of the three year program. All in all: Message this weekend to the market: You don't need to worry about Greece for the next three years; you can mess around in the secondary market, but the Greek government will be fine - you are out of the equation!

Portugal will soon have to beef up its fiscal consolidation measures. Nick Kojucharov: We are concerned about Portugal’s strategy of slow and back-loaded fiscal consolidation. Portugal’s government has pencilled in only 1ppt of reduction this year to its outsized 9.4% deficit, and is waiting for the economy to stabilise before it enacts more aggressive measures in 2011-2013. Whether on its own accord or in response to market pressures, we think Portugal will soon have to beef up its consolidation measures, starting by bringing expenditure cuts forward into this year.”


A triste moral desta triste história é que em breve os mercados deixam de se preocupar com a Grécia, e passam a preocupar-se com Portugal...

*como relembra, hoje no Público, Luís Campos e Cunha.